Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0331
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 25 2023 02:07:33

ACUS11 KWNS 250207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250207=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-250330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northwestern AL into Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 250207Z - 250330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of all hazards will
increase over portions of northwestern AL into Middle TN during the
next few hours. A watch issuance is likely before 0230Z.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS is tracking eastward across western TN into
northern MS, while northeastward-moving supercells are ongoing over
northern into central MS. As a large-scale trough evident in water
vapor imagery continues eastward this evening, the warm sector
(characterized by middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will spread eastward
into parts of western AL and Middle TN. At the same time, a
strengthening low-level jet will also shift eastward over the warm
sector, favoring a continuation of the severe storms with eastward
extent. Large/clockwise-turning hodographs (sampled by regional VWP)
will support organized storms including supercells (even if embedded
in a line) with a risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.
A watch will likely be issued for parts of this area before 0230Z.

...Weinman/Thompson.. 03/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8ZkxLL7bk8Tfx49_8mSu9fALjs2ZNQXFahqmkh7JMOeYk3UwfLZ3Xm0TwHasZf-2S4dlpYyzm=
xOmUNOmeoJv7CRX5oc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33258829 34048822 34568815 35168797 35398767 35408714
            35268643 34888600 34468602 33848685 33118732 32838768
            32928829 33258829=20


=3D =3D =3D
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