Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 25 2023 01:16:08 ACUS01 KWNS 250115 SWODY1 SPC AC 250114 Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR AN ERROR IN THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITY LINE ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley tonight. Several tornadoes are possible, including the possibility for a few strong tornadoes, and scattered damaging gusts. ....01z update for the lower MS Valley north into the lower OH Valley... Ongoing extensive band of thunderstorms from the lower OH Valley into the lower MS Valley will continue to progress east-northeastward this evening and into the overnight hours, in advance of a migratory mid-level shortwave trough. A surface low is forecast to continue to deepen and develop northeast from northeast AR into IN by early morning tomorrow. A warm front will advance northward tonight into parts of the lower OH Valley as the moist sector (via a marine front) advances northward into northern MS. Considerable uncertainty exists on the northern portion of the outlook area across the lower OH Valley where very strong wind fields will be present in a gradually destabilizing airmass featuring scant to weak buoyancy. Have lowered forecast severe probabilities across this region due primarily to weaker instability and increased confidence in only limited buoyancy developing before a band of storms overspreads the area from the west tonight. Farther south, a mixed mode of linear storms and supercells will likely traverse the northern portion of a moist/more unstable airmass near and south of a marine warm front. Strengthening low-level shear/SRH will favor storm organization in the form of persistent mesocyclones. A couple of longer-track supercells are possible and a few of these supercells will likely pose a tornado risk. A few strong tornadoes are possible. As storms gradually grow upscale tonight and move into weaker instability over the TN Valley, a gradual lessening in tornado potential is expected. In the meantime, scattered damaging gusts are probable with the more intense storms before more limited severe-wind coverage ensues. ...Smith.. 03/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .