Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 23:51:32

AWUS01 KWNH 242351
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-250450-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0125
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Arkansas, northern
Mississippi, and southwest Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 242350Z - 250450Z

Summary...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable
of producing very intense rain rates this evening with upwards of
2" hourly totals, resulting in instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The line of strong to severe thunderstorms organizing
over parts of Arkansas this evening will continue to race eastward
through this evening, reaching northern Mississippi and western
Tennessee over the next several hours. Water vapor imagery
continues to show a very impressive/sharp shortwave trough
tracking east through the ArkLaTex with a classic setup for
favorable forcing for ascent across the region. While at the
surface, the stationary boundary remains draped along/near the
Ohio River and low pressure is organizing over central Arkansas.
Recent blended TPW products show upwards of 1.75" to near 2",
continuing to surge ahead of the system thanks to impressive low
level flow.

The main concern is for very intense rain rates associated with
the line of convection that will track eastward through the
evening, impacting eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and
parts of western to middle Tennessee. The latest RAP forecasts
show a surging 850 mb jet of 60 kts with upwards of 1000-2000 J/kg
of MUCAPE reaching the MS/TN line. The impressive dynamics with
this system combined with the instability will provide the
ingredients for very intense rain rates. Recent HREF neighborhood
probabilities show a slight (20-30%) chance of 2" hourly totals
through the evening but the experimental WoFS model the last few
cycles indicate 5-minute rain rates may approach or exceed 0.5"
with the stronger embedded cores in the line. If merging clusters
or cells happen, there's the possibility for some repeating rounds
of these rain rates and current radar shows some leading
convection coming out of southeast Arkansas likely to merge with
the main line across east-central Arkansas.

So while the forward motion of the line of storms will likely be
fast to limit more widespread issues, more localized pockets of
intense rain rates capable of producing flash flooding are likely
through the evening hours, which may fall over some soil moisture
anomalies (0-40 cm layer) that are running above 70-80 percent per
NASA SPoRT.

Taylor

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5al_n8Q3XfyHI9VwK9sEjbSuGhELChzBpNl4LI3Z0C7hw03Oo-YxmhpQ66rmlDqHA65w=
CERuDbRdlagVCaN-uVf-Kas$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35898991 35878902 35668826 35418793 34808795=20
            33778867 33278975 33109025 33049111 33259202=20
            33829211 35049160 35629073=20

=3D =3D =3D
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