Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0328
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 23:39:32

ACUS11 KWNS 242339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242339=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-250115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0328
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northeast LA...southeast AR...and
west-central MS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...

Valid 242339Z - 250115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells should intensify during the next hour or so,
with a corresponding increase in tornado potential.

DISCUSSION...A favorable corridor for supercell intensification is
evolving over portions of northeastern LA, southeast AR, and
west-central MS this afternoon/early evening. Here, boundary-layer
moisture is increasing (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) amid substantial
surface pressure falls beneath a strengthening low-level jet (around
50 kt at 850 mb per DGX VWP). The corresponding DGX VWP hodograph
has increased in both size and clockwise curvature during the last
few hours, with nearly 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH sampled at DGX. As the
low-level jet strengthens further, hodographs should only get larger
along/south of an east/west-oriented marine front shifting
northward. Current thinking is that a few supercell clusters near
the MS river will intensify as they track northeastward into this
increasingly favorable environment during the next hour or so, with
a corresponding increase in tornado potential (some strong to
intense).

...Weinman.. 03/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!84EEFnYUdh2b23-ZJ9cR2xamAMc_LkzPyybZNmeNzx2EL_kYAfcHXjwTQWxOye0LNjuAPV7j9=
RWweDPEMR08MAPNfEE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31949204 32529204 33119194 33569163 33919129 33969086
            33919044 33749011 33309009 32039077 31809120 31799180
            31949204=20


=3D =3D =3D
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