Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0325
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 22:29:33

ACUS11 KWNS 242229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242228=20
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-242330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...northeastern Arkansas...the Missouri Bootheel and
western Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...

Valid 242228Z - 242330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.

SUMMARY...Organized and gradually intensifying storms likely will be
accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few
tornadoes across northeastern Arkansas into western Tennessee,
including at least portions of the Greater Memphis area, through 7-9
PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...While there has been some fluctuation in intensity, a
gradually evolving convective system has generally maintained
organization, with one bowing segment in radar reflectivities
becoming a bit more prominent to the east and southeast of a
developing mesoscale convective vortex approaching the Batesville
vicinity.  This segment appears to be propagating along the thermal
gradient associated with a remnant outflow boundary extending
east-northeastward into western Tennessee.

As southerly to southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields
strengthen (40-80+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer) coincident with a
consolidating/deepening surface cyclone across central into
northeastern Arkansas through this evening, substantive further
intensification of the convective system appears possible.  This
should be aided by inflow of moist air characterized by at least
weak around or in excess of 500 J/kg.

The lingering surface baroclinic zone likely will provide the focus
for the most intense embedded supercell structures/mesovortices, and
associated highest probabilities for severe wind and tornadoes.

...Kerr.. 03/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-lddc-qp4pFc3V2Bl1PHw8gzA5bjSjDzb-6Z8zWCmDnrTP01WmQok9Ada6e3Cp4zPrPHFacJ9=
0LWUmb_7tEmBWlTud4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   36039140 36309015 36468849 35828806 35218920 34859147
            35469132 36039140=20


=3D =3D =3D
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