Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0323
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 20:39:32

ACUS11 KWNS 242039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242038=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-242245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...central and southern Arkansas into northern
Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 75...

Valid 242038Z - 242245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes is increasing across the watch
area, and will likely extend east of the existing tornado watch this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to organize along the cold front,
particularly near the surface low over west-central AR where a small
MCS has formed just on the cool side of the modifying outflow. Other
storms extend southward along the primary cold front toward TXK, and
farther south into TX.

Of special note are multiple bands of convection which are gradually
deepening within the moist plume near the Sabine River. This plume
of 70+ dewpoints is resulting in over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, which is
sufficient to support supercells as lift continues to increase with
time. While a relative warm layer still exists near 700 mb as can be
seen on the 18Z SHV sounding, the moist layer has already become
deep enough to break the cap, resulting in warm-sector storms well
east of the cold front.

As the low-level jet increases this evening, so will shear and
supercell/tornado potential. Effective SRH on the order of 300 m2/s2
with 0-1 SRH over 200 m2/s2 may support a few strong tornadoes with
maturing cells east of the cold front. As such, a new watch will
likely be needed to include areas east of WW 75.

...Jewell/Guyer.. 03/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4rKkPdFcr86TV17SGStp29ywmxtJI4b5RAYoWpzhW_9c1VQ6ipio1ngee3T6TNkDatiNcrdUK=
7GrmXW-2eqbYKYyAzQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33359373 34259343 34389336 34529327 34659305 34729272
            34809212 34859170 34819145 34689095 34349083 33599089
            32979110 32419127 31839193 31629251 31449305 31389336
            31359361 31369398 31459421 31609426 32069416 32139412
            33359373=20


=3D =3D =3D
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