Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 20:18:01

AWUS01 KWNH 242017
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-250216-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0124
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, southern
Illinois, southwestern Kentucky, and western Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 242016Z - 250216Z

Summary...Additional flash flooding is likely to occur especially
in central and northern Arkansas through 02Z.

Discussion...Renewed convective development has occurred along an
axis from near 30 W RUE to near GGG over the past 1-2 hours.  The
storms are being influenced by lift/ascent associated with an
approaching mid-level shortwave across Texas.  Additional,
stratiform rainfall was noted across southern Missouri currently.
So far, storms have exhibited a tendency to orient nearly
perpendicular to flow aloft, allowing for progressive storm
motions (exceeding 50 knots at times), which has limited rainfall
rates to 1 inch/hr at most.  These rates should still be enough to
cause issues with runoff/flash flooding especially from
west-central Arkansas through southern Illinois, where recent
rainfall (1-4 inches over the past 12 hours) has resulted in wet
soils and lowered FFG thresholds (generally less than 2
inches/hr).  In fact, a few spots across north-central Arkansas,
southern Missouri, southern Illinois, and the Fort Smith area have
FFGs as low as 0.25 inch/hr.  The flash flood risk will be highest
in these areas through 02Z - especially in vulnerable/sensitive
areas that are already experiencing high water/runoff from prior
activity.

As storms in western Arkansas and the Ark-La-Tex mature, areas of
localized training are likely to increase both near any
upscale-growing storms and also with storms that can materialize
out ahead of the main convective axis.  The training will result
in an attendant increase in the flash flood risk on at least a
localized basis.  An additional 1-3 inches of rainfall are
expected in the discussion area especially across Arkansas and
especially where training storms can materialize.  Farther north,
limited instability (across Missouri and Illinois) should result
in lower rainfall rates (generally below 0.5-0.75 inch/hr),
although very low FFGs suggest a continued flash flood threat in
that area.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9yIIf5JUEmmjKpBzG8fsWem54md3w_saJQAeYgfzbo-223VDkg4L7RdC-Y-kF1InjgIO=
ZbD-HepPe8ViYNQQ5RNtK0A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...
SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38998851 38948769 38578755 37898758 37168764=20
            36558768 35958807 35358931 34519102 33779216=20
            33219410 33899482 35379431 36769339 37439215=20
            38509023=20

=3D =3D =3D
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