Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0322
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 20:15:31

ACUS11 KWNS 242015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242014=20
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-242115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...Central to northeast Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 242014Z - 242115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms intensifying over western/central
Arkansas may pose a wind threat through the late afternoon and early
evening hours. Watch issuance is possible to address this concern.

DISCUSSION...Gradual organization and intensification of an
organized line of storms has been apparent over the past hour in
KSRX/KLZK and GOES IR imagery. This convection is displaced well
into the cool air to the north of a stalled outflow boundary, and
storm motions to the northeast suggest that this activity will
remain in the cool air mass despite a gradual northward advance of
the boundary this afternoon. Given the widespread cloud cover and
muted diurnal warming, buoyancy is expected to remain somewhat
limited; however, strong lift ahead of a deepening cyclone and
approximately 60 knots of effective bulk shear will compensate for
the meager buoyancy in the near term and maintain, if not intensify,
the ongoing line of convection. The potential for convection rooted
in the boundary layer may increase as temperatures (dewpoints)
slowly warm into the mid (low) 60s across northeast AR, which should
support an increasing damaging wind threat through the late
afternoon/early evening.

...Moore/Guyer.. 03/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7ZpYZBnWtVzE8anF0CWSATvm5rLEyzAj_T5fpKEd8-PC_z1ajnpdg5mUVuQYzoB_hM8fVilIU=
Vfn_qiW6YbVVxMANC8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   34569403 34979411 35519409 35899337 36579133 36669021
            36138986 35478998 35059044 34909121 34689253 34569403=20


=3D =3D =3D
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