Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0321
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 17:43:32

ACUS11 KWNS 241743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241742=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-242015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...northeast Texas...central and southern Arkansas and
parts of northern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 241742Z - 242015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
along a cold front, with a damaging wind, hail and tornado risk
developing through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Storms have increased recently along a cold front from
southeast OK into northeast TX, and this trend is likely to continue
as the air mass destabilizes downstream toward the Arklatex.=20

Surface analysis shows modifying outflow extending eastward across
central AR, with a leading line of storms heading toward the Memphis
area. Southerly winds are gusting to over 30 kt south of the dying
outflow boundary in AR, and surface observations near the Red River
are recovering. As such, the severe risk area will likely include
parts of AR which are currently cooler/stable, due to expected
destabilization later today.

Low pressure will move east/northeast across the modifying outflow
zone, reaching northeast AR by 00Z. This zone will be a favored area
for severe storms including tornadoes and damaging winds, with mixed
storm modes possible. Low-level shear is currently strongest in this
area, averaging around 250 m2/s2 0-1 SRH. However, shear across the
entire region will become more favorable for supercells and
tornadoes later today.

Through early afternoon, the severe risk is expected to evolve from
the activity over northeast TX as it moves into AR and interacts
with the enhanced low-level shear zone.

...Jewell/Guyer.. 03/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8w_ValsWdBwJ5LGSVr_0XYhveGDHQ0fOtPptzKyG-DfPgwi2Fgi9JXdSLEinHYbIUSktuEoFB=
mWsVeAMmP-VL9IWaZg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   32479252 31909396 31859512 32289553 32699563 33219555
            33639534 33899512 34209479 34689390 34989310 35179167
            35069121 34639108 33789143 32969202 32479252=20


=3D =3D =3D
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