Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 14:01:55

AWUS01 KWNH 241401
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-242000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0123
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...much of Arkansas, southeastern Oklahoma, western
Tennessee, far northeast Texas, far southeastern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241400Z - 242000Z

Summary...Areas of repeating thunderstorm activity will result in
a continued, locally signficant flash flood risk through 20Z today.

Discussion...A complicated convective pattern is ongoing across
the discussion area.  Continued shower and thunderstorm activity
exists along the I-40 corridor in Arkansas this morning along a
remnant outflow from early morning storms now in Kentucky.=20
Meanwhile, another organizing MCS was intersecting this boundary
around the Fort Smith/Russelville, AR vicinity.  Areas of 1-2 inch
rainfall totals over the past 6 hours (estimated per MRMS) have
occurred downstream of the western Arkansas MCS, and localized
areas of 1-3 additional rainfall totals are likely in this area
over the next 3-5 hours as the MCS moves east-northeastward.=20
Furthermore, backbuilding/training storms were located as far
southwest as McCurtain County, Oklahoma this morning and these
storms were not translating as quickly to the east compared to
areas farther north.  A few spots of flash flooding are likely in
this scenario.

Over time, additional, more vigorous convective development is
expected across southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a
mid-level shortwave trough approaches the moist, unstable
warm-sector airmass in place across the region (especially south
of the US 70 corridor from Little Rock to Hot Springs).  This
activity appears more likely to materialize toward 18-20Z, and
should result in an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall across
especially southern portions of the discussion area.  This
repeating/training rainfall scenario should result in potentially
widespread flash flood issues across Arkansas through 20Z and
beyond.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_9RYcwtDBLyNeQ6YZLPMhqApDJYTnnMqDfU-L9Kvf-2cu8etrPblhBRDXOFycjFHpiN-=
V1BvSBlWPQjhVKElPGFnqBU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36589144 36538963 36088886 35518900 34759041=20
            34109131 33369307 33199412 33389548 34099608=20
            34709518 35439393 36299301 36509226=20

=3D =3D =3D
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