Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0319
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 08:47:37

ACUS11 KWNS 240847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240846=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-241045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0319
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Areas affected...parts of central and northern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73...

Valid 240846Z - 241045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms ongoing across parts of WW 73 are expected to shift
east-northeastward and eventually out of the existing watch
boundaries.  Limited severe risk expanding toward the DFW metroplex
as these storms progress, will warrant consideration of WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a vigorous/locally severe band
of storms moving east-northeastward across the Big Country of Texas,
with its progression roughly coincident with the advance of the
surface cold front.

With a moist/amply unstable airmass just atop a weakly stable
surface-based layer, expect the convection to persist.  However,
severity of the convection is uncertain, with the low-level
stability tempering wind risk to some degree, and radar trends over
the past hour or so suggestive of only marginal hail/wind.  Without
an apparent mechanism that would lead to a substantial increase in
storm organization/intensity, severe risk will likely remain
limited/isolated -- and thus need for a downstream WW remains
uncertain at this time.

...Goss.. 03/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8oTjulEc2gyZg7C_-HRtrP9mCtc_3fgbTycYtQO49wQq5dT_hWbxdruP_BDr8Oj0CXK3Dzlzv=
AJjPA0asNn19QDJrZU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   32649911 33329791 34089662 33869518 33109491 32529653
            31749878 32649911=20


=3D =3D =3D
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