Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 08:35:58

ACUS48 KWNS 240835
SWOD48
SPC AC 240834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Severe potential appears limited on Days 4-5/Mon-Tue. Stronger
deep-layer westerly flow will shift northward over the Midwest as an
upper shortwave trough migrates from the northern Plains to the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. Strong surface high pressure over the
central U.S. and a cold front dropping southward into the northern
Gulf will result in generally dry/stable conditions.

Mid/upper ridging will develop over the Plains and MS Valley
vicinity on Day 6/Wed ahead of a deepening western trough.
Strengthening surface low pressure over the southern Rockies
vicinity Wednesday evening/overnight will result in northward
transport of Gulf moisture across TX/OK by early Day 7/Thu. Severe
potential will increase on Day 7/Thu from the southern Plains
vicinity as the upper trough develops eastward. There is still
uncertainty regarding the timing and geometry (negative vs. positive
tilt) of the trough. However, forecast guidance shows strong
southwesterly flow overspreading the southern Plains vicinity atop a
seasonally moist boundary-layer ahead of a dryline and
southeastward-advancing cold front. This overall pattern will
support severe thunderstorms, though the 15 percent outlook
delineation may shift/expand as forecast details evolve in the
coming days.

Some severe potential may persist eastward toward the Mid/Lower MS
Valley vicinity on Day 8/Fri. However, stronger ascent appears to
become further removed from better thermodynamics with time as the
upper trough ejects quickly northeast toward the Great Lakes. Trends
will be monitored for any increasing severe potential on Friday over
the coming days.

...Leitman.. 03/24/2023

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