Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 07:04:28

ACUS03 KWNS 240704
SWODY3
SPC AC 240703

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of Louisiana into southern and central Mississippi, Alabama and
Georgia on Sunday.

.... Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...

Quite a bit of uncertainty persists regarding severe potential for
parts of the central Gulf Coast states and vicinity on Sunday. A
warm front is forecast to be somewhere near southern LA/MS/AL/GA
during the morning. This front should lift northward through the
period, though boundary position varies greatly between forecast
models. The operational NAM appears to be an outlier, showing a much
more dynamic system evolving from the southern Plains into the
Mid-South vicinity, where stronger surface cyclogenesis creates a
more robust mass response across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF and GFS, along with ensemble guidance, indicates a more
subdued evolution within an area of broad and moderately strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow and modest surface cyclogenesis.

Despite these uncertainties, a seasonally moist boundary-layer will
exist across the region, and pockets of at least weak
destabilization are anticipated in a warm advection regime. In
combination with moderate shear and weak ascent, the environment
should support an isolated/conditional risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms.

...Leitman.. 03/24/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.