Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 05:17:29 ACUS02 KWNS 240517 SWODY2 SPC AC 240515 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA AND PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into South Carolina on Saturday. ....Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough over the Mid-MS Valley vicinity Saturday morning will deepen and pivot northeast through the period across the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and eventually over New England. Broad upper troughing will persist across much of the CONUS, with fast southwesterly deep-layer flow stretching from the southern Plains through much of the eastern U.S. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to be positioned over IN/western OH. As the low deepens while lifting north/northeast, a cold front will surge eastward across the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. The southwestern portions of the front will stall over the Carolinas into GA, while retreating northward overnight across southern AL/MS. ....Southeast Vicinity... A line of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Saturday morning along the cold front in the central Appalachians southwestward into northern/central GA, southeast AL and the western FL Panhandle. Forecast guidance varies widely with regard to storm coverage, in part due to timing of the southeastward sagging surface boundary, and also due to weakening forcing for ascent through the day. Nevertheless, 60s surface dewpoints will be in place, though destabilization may be stunted by widespread cloudiness. Where stronger heating does occur, a corridor of weak to moderate instability amid favorable shear may support isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Strong gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible. If confidence increases in greater storm coverage and timing a categorical upgrade to Slight risk may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ....Eastern OH/western PA... Low-topped convection, perhaps with little lightning, will likely develop ahead of the surface low and beneath the upper trough/low where cooling aloft will result in steepening lapse rates. This will support 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE amid strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow. Strong gusts associated with gradient winds may accompany these showers from midday into the afternoon. However, weak instability should preclude deeper convection and severe probabilities. ...Leitman.. 03/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .