Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 02:56:44

AWUS01 KWNH 240256
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-240900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0121
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Areas affected...Central to Northeast OK...Northwest AR...Southern
MO...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240300Z - 240900Z

SUMMARY...Continued Training with aligned deep layer flow,
moisture and instability to maintain likely scattered to numerous
incidents of flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...As discussed in MPD 120 downstream, there is a flat
speed max induced shortwave and favorable upper level right
entrance for strong and broad vertical ascent tracking across S MO
into S IL at this time.   However, the main longer wave trof is
starting to emerge across the High Plains of SE CO into TX with
fairly good spacing to maintain a deep fairly unidirectional
steering layer across OK, northwest AR into Southern MO, while
concurrently supporting enough shortwave ridging between to
counteract influences of cool pool development/outflow to press
the frontal zone southward.  02z surface and RAP analysis also
continue to point to broad southerly surface to 925mb flow feeding
mid-60s Tds. CIRA LPW also denotes pulse of enhanced Western Gulf
moisture crossing the Red River into E OK, along and east of the
850mb inflection, resulting in 1.5" Total PWat Values fluxed at
25-30kts a fairly favorable angle to the surface front for
increasing isentropic convergence to support continued stronger
updrafts from central OK northeast into SW MO.  Efficient rainfall
generation should support rates up to 1.5-1.7"/hr.  Duration with
very slow southeastward drift of the convergence axis should allow
for an area of 2-4" mainly with areas of longest duration from NW
AR across Southern MO into SE MO though 09z.=20

Upstream height-falls are resulting in the deepest/stronger cells
across South-central OK. These will be faster moving and less
likely repeating/tracking across areas along the front in NE OK to
S MO. Still HRRR 15-minute rain totals vary from .75 to 1" with
these broader cores resulting in streaks of 1-2" in less than
hour, which given the breadth of the downdrafts should affect
connected watersheds and may result in isolated flash flooding
incidents as well.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_RBweZ38rHOmyUVACQNjcMRc_YX9V_6zmEUio26nqKAc4YZK1ksQCAJvsIvduLd0GdPW=
HoSwJSFOklqyZ1fLUdVqLaQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...OUN...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38349010 37328954 36969051 36329199 35569355=20
            34539597 34219687 33869817 33999861 34739841=20
            35849681 36829492 37519348 38169164=20

=3D =3D =3D
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