Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 00:47:55

ACUS01 KWNS 240047
SWODY1
SPC AC 240046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail will be possible into the
overnight hours from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley. All
severe weather hazards will be possible across portions of northern
Texas and southeastern Oklahoma with primarily a severe hail threat
farther south into Texas along the dryline.

Ongoing supercells across southern Missouri have had periodic large
hail/damaging wind reports. These supercells may persist northeast
across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois and far southern
Indiana since the downstream environment is as favorable as the
current environment. Expanded the slight risk northeast to cover
this threat through the late evening/early overnight hours.
See Mesoscale Discussion 315 for additional information.

Otherwise, only minimal changes were made to the categorical area.
The 5% tornado and 15% severe wind probabilities were expanded
across western Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern Texas. Mid
to upper 60s dewpoints will advect into this region after midnight
which may actually increase instability early Friday morning.
Therefore, the increasing instability and low-level shear across
this region is sufficient to support 5% tornado and 15% wind
probabilities early Friday morning.

...Bentley.. 03/24/2023

$$

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