Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0315
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 24 2023 00:23:25

ACUS11 KWNS 240023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240022=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-240215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern MO...southern IL...far southwest
IN...and far western KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 240022Z - 240215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of strong to severe storms capable of large hail
could increase into the overnight hours. Trends are being monitored
for a possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...During the next few hours, an
east-northeast/west-southwest-oriented quasi-stationary surface
boundary will move slightly southward, while a strengthening
low-level jet to the south (over the warm sector) gradually
strengthens. This will result in strengthening isentropic ascent and
increasing storm coverage in the vicinity of the boundary. While
deep-layer flow/shear oriented parallel to the boundary will
generally support elevated storms, nearly 60 kt of effective shear
will still support organized supercell structures capable of large
hail. And, if any of this activity tracks more eastward along/ahead
of the boundary, upscale growth and near-surface-based inflow could
allow for locally damaging gusts. The overall severe threat is
uncertain given the potential for mostly elevated storms, though
trends will be monitored for a possible watch issuance.

...Weinman/Thompson.. 03/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-zkMXRN9sKMZ-PVcmrjqH0ToBKiqJ3iwxBpOhBurgOEW7rWN9cZ-jbcbcjxd_S4yxIIDVdphJ=
RY5BMXvGSIIwNjpasc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37549126 37799013 38008912 38218817 38228766 38078738
            37748735 37438761 37098862 36509085 36569143 36759174
            37049182 37329177 37549126=20


=3D =3D =3D
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