Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0314
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 23 2023 23:24:22

ACUS11 KWNS 232324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232323=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Areas affected...Northwest TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71...

Valid 232323Z - 240100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms in northwest TX should gradually intensify into the
evening hours. Large hail is the primary concern, though locally
severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will also be possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KFDR shows recent
intensification of a small line segment in northwest TX immediately
ahead of a triple point. Additional isolated storms are developing
farther south along the dryline into Fisher County TX. While
persistent cirrus clouds have limited destabilization ahead of this
activity to an extent, middle 60s dewpoints beneath steepening
midlevel lapse rates ahead of an approaching shortwave trough are
contributing to moderate pre-convective instability (around 1500
J/kg MLCAPE). Over the next couple hours, hodographs should expand
in size and clockwise curvature ahead of these storms, supporting
gradual intensification across the southern portion of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 71 and potentially areas slightly south. While
boundary-parallel storm motions and deep-layer shear could favor
supercell clusters capable of large hail and damaging gusts, a
tornado cannot be ruled out with any cells that remain more discrete
given the increasing boundary-layer streamwise vorticity.

...Weinman.. 03/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9aYf9ApScGuCZIWmOtx7whRK6BCbRacqzX0Wkk06t-IfISowAAi3sr0Vtpl4MHl_IufRUwect=
jS9NWUs0HWdhNjCjck$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33699966 33879936 34059900 34139876 34179842 34139812
            33979794 33649799 33299843 32549949 32349996 32340029
            32470039 32830023 33280001 33699966=20


=3D =3D =3D
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