Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0313
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 23 2023 22:40:53

ACUS11 KWNS 232240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232240=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-240015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Areas affected...Far eastern OK...northwest AR...southwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71...72...

Valid 232240Z - 240015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71, 72
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing supercells could gradually intensify during the
next couple hours. Large hail and locally damaging gusts are the
main concerns, though a tornado will also be possible.

DISCUSSION...Northeastward-tracking supercells are ongoing
along/slightly north of a stalled surface boundary extending from
far eastern OK east-northeastward into south-central MO. Thus far,
the overall flow regime has favored storms evolving
along/immediately north of the surface boundary, resulting in
primarily a large-hail threat. While hail reports have been
sub-severe so far in this area, a developing surface low along the
boundary in eastern OK coupled with a gradually strengthening
low-level jet could favor an increase in storm intensity during the
next couple hours.=20

In addition, outflow associated with a supercell cluster in eastern
OK is having a tendency to re-orient the stationary boundary to more
northeast-southwest -- yielding off-boundary flow/shear into the
open warm sector. If this activity (or any storms along the
boundary) obtain stronger midlevel mesocylones and propagate
slightly eastward off the boundary, damaging gusts and perhaps a
tornado or two will become an increasing concern. Overall,
confidence in this scenario is low given recent convective trends,
and large hail should be the primary threat.

...Weinman.. 03/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6kppssWD9kUCS1rpR0ct7st13SDamPcs0gvb92hlPGgpCxnG8n2tGCKRk7rTKV8IzrAO5woCG=
V4gGdHKupUcyEGphSg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35859498 36079478 36309438 36809345 37009295 37269225
            37369189 37019172 36539182 35849339 35539406 35399467
            35619500 35859498=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.