Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0312
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 23 2023 22:27:52

ACUS11 KWNS 232227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232227=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-240030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Areas affected...parts of southern Indiana...central and southern
Ohio...adjacent north central Kentucky...the northern West Virginia
Panhandle and southwestern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232227Z - 240030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong storms posing a risk
for mainly marginally severe hail and wind are possible through
around 8-10 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent along a slowly southward advancing
cold front has been sufficient to support the initiation of
scattered thunderstorm activity.  This is occurring beneath the
northwestern periphery of large-scale mid/upper ridging, but
westerly flow aloft is quite strong and contributing to strong
deep-layer shear.=20

A narrow pre-frontal corridor has become at least weakly unstable
with mixed-layer CAPE up to around 500 J/kg, aided by modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates.  This might support a couple of strong storms
which could eventually produce severe hail before convection weakens
as the boundary-layer instability wanes after dark.  The potential
for localized strong surface gusts is a bit more unclear due to
generally moist low-level thermodynamic profiles with weak lapse
rates.  However, some mixing down to the surface of stronger
westerly low-level flow (40-50 kt around 850 mb) appears possible
across southeastern Ohio into southwestern Pennsylvania.

...Kerr/Thompson.. 03/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-DC93A3hLgBqymVqse-00VjsW5S59IjkLH19J4uYtSxsd4jSs_8n8KK30C32h-_9v3kn9cbLN=
5b75firFo5k__oLyd0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   38768671 39428491 39698400 39998241 40388036 39918021
            39308098 39068300 38848433 38648633 38768671=20


=3D =3D =3D
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