Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0311
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 23 2023 19:46:23

ACUS11 KWNS 231946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231945=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-232115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeast Oklahoma...extreme northwest
Arkansas...far southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 231945Z - 232115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms should gradually increase both ahead of and behind
the cold front through the afternoon and evening hours. A few of the
stronger storms may produce severe hail, with a damaging gust or
tornado possible with pre-frontal storms.

DISCUSSION...A subtle perturbation within the broader southwesterly
mid-level flow, evident via 19Z mesoanalysis, is approaching the
southern Plains from the NM/TX border area and is expected to
contribute to increasing upper support through the afternoon.
Simultaneously, boundary-layer warming/moistening is contributing to
increasing surface-based instability ahead of a southward-sagging
cold front. Mid 70s/upper 60s F surface temperatures/dewpoints,
overspread by 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates (evident via modified
observed 18Z regional soundings) are contributing to 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Though vertical wind profiles are largely unidirectional,
regional 18Z observed soundings and VADs show adequate speed shear
and associated elongated hodographs. As such, several storms may
become organized and sustained, with occasional bouts of mid-level
rotation possible.

Scattered multicells and transient supercells may develop in either
the pre- or post-cold frontal environment through the evening hours
as a 30+ kt 850 mb jet continues to advect rich moisture over the
Ozark Valley, with over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE likely. In either regime,
large hail will be the main threat. However, the stronger storms
with the greatest likelihood of very large hail and perhaps a severe
gust or tornado would be in northeast OK toward the AR border, where
storms may experience enough residence time ahead of the cold front
to take advantage of the relatively greater (surface-based)
buoyancy.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 03/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9VolViUddDZxWKauMfvTigqJam67YR-LDXIPbVUJSLsqd70N9SmUN72tTGmUBhJm2nhLhc8tT=
egRutLfEKrPHjnWvm0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35539693 36409577 37069452 37209354 36989272 36639254
            36209279 35799367 35419465 35289543 35209631 35539693=20


=3D =3D =3D
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