Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 23 2023 09:02:50

ACUS48 KWNS 230902
SWOD48
SPC AC 230901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that broadly cyclonic
flow aloft will cover the CONUS on D4/Sunday. A low-amplitude
shortwave trough is expected to move through this cyclonic flow on
D4/Sunday, progressing from the southern High Plains into the Mid MS
Valley. Modest moisture return is anticipated from the TX Gulf Coast
to the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid-level flow atop this returning
moisture may provide the environment needed for severe
thunderstorms. However, numerous uncertainties regarding the
forecast details, including the location of the front, number of
storms, and area of greatest destabilization, preclude the forecast
confidence needed to delineate an area. Some probabilities may be
needed in later outlooks when these mesoscale details become more
predictable.

A cold front associated with the low-amplitude shortwave is expected
to move across the central Plains on D5/Monday while the overall
upper pattern trends more zonal. The front will likely continue
southward through the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley on
D6/Tuesday. Low-level moisture and buoyancy will be confined to the
Gulf Coast during this period, keeping thunderstorm chances isolated
to those areas.

Guidance continues to indicate that a deep upper low will move into
the western CONUS on D7/Wednesday and D8/Thursday. Moisture return
across the Plains is anticipated ahead of this system, and some
severe appears possible across the Plains on D8/Thursday. However,
timing of the wave and quality of the moisture return are uncertain,
and low predictability limits forecast confidence at this range.

...Mosier.. 03/23/2023

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