Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 23 2023 07:43:59

FOUS30 KWBC 230743
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 23 2023 - 12Z Fri Mar 24 2023

....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER A PORTION
OF THE MID/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY..

An abundant, steady stream of Gulf moisture as a deep-layer trough
ejects from the Southern Rockies and results in strengthening low
level flow.  At about the same time, upper level divergence from
an upper level jet aids in surface low pressure forming along a
quasi-stationary front extending from Oklahoma northeastward into
the Ohio/Tennessee Valley. Precipitable water values at or
slightly greater than 1.25 inches reaches eastern Oklahoma by
23/18Z before becoming more expansive by 24 00Z, from Texas to
Kentucky. Strong moisture convergence along the boundary along
with support from the upper level jet will aid in the production
of moderate to locally heavy rainfall, especially from eastern
Oklahoma to the southern Indiana. There still  potential for 1 to
2 inch/hour rain rates during the afternoon, but especially
by/after 00Z. While this area is not as saturated as it was a
couple of weeks ago...there is local concern given that ground
conditions are still fairly moist. The Moderate and Slight Risk
areas were expanded to the southwest across Oklahoma to reflect
the latest trends in the guidance and WPC QPF.

Campbell


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6bvkUy5XBRqPzvnkpt7gfbq81gB0450-ZA0p7bOUpOfI=
7hEznwXkeldCpQzTJFsWJ4naDE8ZrGx01-qTnvMK-33bFm0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6bvkUy5XBRqPzvnkpt7gfbq81gB0450-ZA0p7bOUpOfI=
7hEznwXkeldCpQzTJFsWJ4naDE8ZrGx01-qTnvMKkk6bE0I$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6bvkUy5XBRqPzvnkpt7gfbq81gB0450-ZA0p7bOUpOfI=
7hEznwXkeldCpQzTJFsWJ4naDE8ZrGx01-qTnvMKx-v-_yw$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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