Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 22 2023 17:36:15 ACUS02 KWNS 221736 SWODY2 SPC AC 221734 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of hail, some very large, are possible Thursday afternoon through Friday morning across parts of the southern Great Plains. ....Southern Great Plains into the mid MS Valley... Models show a strong upper jet centered over the Great Lakes and moving to the Northeast during the period. A frontal zone will sag southward across parts of the lower MO Valley and OK during the day before stalling during the late afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a persistent fetch of a seasonably moisture-rich air across the southern Great Plains, featuring mid 60s dewpoints across north TX and into southern/central OK south of the boundary. Large-scale troughing located over the Desert Southwest will gradually move east and approach the southern High Plains by early Friday morning. Low-level warm-air advection and the front will likely aid in storm development of an initially capped airmass. Models indicate moderate buoyancy developing by mid-late afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg from the western part of the Ozark Plateau west-southwestward parts of western north TX. The lack of appreciable cyclogenesis over the Red River Valley will likely play a role in limiting both low-level flow (i.e., low-level shear) and an overall supercell tornado risk. However, strong deep-layer shear will promote updraft organization with the more intense storms and favor a mix mode of supercells and multicellular clusters with time. Large to very large hail is possible with the stronger storms. Additional storms are possible farther south along a dryline over parts of the Edwards Plateau during the evening. Upscale growth into one or more convective bands with some lingering severe risk will be possible into the overnight hours as the activity moves east/southeast to near the north TX I-35 corridor. Farther northeast over MO/IL, weaker buoyancy is progged by model guidance. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near and north of the front during the evening. A couple of stronger storms could yield an isolated risk for large hail before convective overturning occurs. ....Southern Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near a weak surface low across northern IL/northern IN early Thursday morning. Weak buoyancy on the northeast periphery of steeper mid-level lapse rates may result in a stronger storm or two during the morning. However, the coverage/magnitude of a hail threat precludes low-severe probabilities. ...Smith.. 03/22/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .