Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 22 2023 16:08:13

ACUS01 KWNS 221608
SWODY1
SPC AC 221606

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL
INDIANA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms -- capable of large hail --
are possible from central/northern Missouri and southern Iowa
eastward to northern Indiana.

....MO/IA/IL/IN...

A cluster of elevated thunderstorms is ongoing across central IL
late this morning. This activity will continue eastward into parts
of IN/OH through the afternoon on the nose of a modest southwesterly
low-level jet and warm advection regime. Weak elevated instability
may support small hail in the short term.

By late afternoon into this evening, upper 50s to low 60s F surface
dewpoints will spread northward into central MO/IL ahead of a
southeastward-advancing cold front. As the low-level jet increases
to around 40-50 kt, organized thunderstorms are expected to develop
across north-central MO into southeast IA and central IL near/after
00z. This activity will likely remain elevated as it spreads
eastward across IN into western OH overnight. Nevertheless,
effective shear magnitudes around 30-35 kt will support organized
convection. Elongated hodographs above 3 km, along with the bulk of
instability in the 700-400 mb layer, will support large hail
potential with strongest activity this evening/overnight.

...Leitman/Moore.. 03/22/2023

$$

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