Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0308
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 22 2023 14:56:12

ACUS11 KWNS 221456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221455=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-221630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern MO into central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221455Z - 221630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms should generally remain sub-severe
this morning, with an isolated threat for small to perhaps
marginally severe hail. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A small area of elevated convection is ongoing this
morning across far eastern MO into central IL. This activity is
being aided by modest low-level warm advection associated with a
30-40 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet. About 700 J/kg of MUCAPE
was present on the 12Z sounding from SGF owing to steepened
mid-level lapse rates. 14Z mesoanalysis is estimating around
500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE across MO, decreasing with eastward extent into
central MO. Current expectations are for these elevated
thunderstorms to remain generally sub-severe due to the
marginal/weak instability. Even so, around 30-35 kt of deep-layer
shear may support weak/transient updraft organization. A
thunderstorm capable of producing marginally severe hail up to 1
inch in diameter may occur over the next hour or two. The low-level
jet is forecast to gradually weaken through the late morning, and
convection will continue eastward into an even less unstable
airmass. Accordingly, any marginal/isolated hail threat should wane
by 16-17Z.

...Gleason/Wendt/Karstens/Liang.. 03/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_ytrjNKUFihhtjvN_pSt07qxokYAXqd3AcXx1wo7V_uGR7ubkNlCpdkkTLsHIDYncFrPYp7hE=
I0YQjgte3YUVRoxNsE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39739171 39899121 39948981 39808874 39458842 38968855
            38748895 38689021 38809165 39739171=20


=3D =3D =3D
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