Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 22 2023 09:34:10

AWUS01 KWNH 220934
FFGMPD
AZZ000-221500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0118
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
533 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of east-central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220930Z - 221500Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy rain will continue to pose an
isolated risk for additional flooding across a small portion of
east-central AZ over the next several hours. Spotty rainfall rates
of 0.25 to 0.5 in/hr are expected with additional totals of 1 to 2
inches through 15Z.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery at 09Z showed a developing mid to
upper level low forming over south-central NV while the low to
mid-level reflection of a large closed low remained nearly
stationary along the central CA coast. 09Z regional radar
reflectivity over central AZ showed scattered to numerous showers
with embedded isolated thunderstorms producing peak rainfall rates
of 0.1 to 0.3 in/hr amid weak CAPE of generally 250 J/kg or less
and precipitable water values of 0.5 to 0.8 inches (recent SPC
mesoanalysis data). A cold front was estimated to be over
west-central AZ, moving east with the track of the upper low over
CA/NV.

SSW VAD winds of 40-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer at KIWA are
likely at peak, with recent RAP forecasts indicating a gradual
weakening in magnitude and veering in the lower levels as the cold
front continues to move east. Upslope enhancement into the eastern
Mogollon Rim and mountains just south of the Rim will continue to
allow for peak rainfall rates of 0.25, perhaps as high as 0.5
in/hr at times. With 24 hour rainfall totals of 1-3 inches,
locally 3+ inches reported across the region, soils are saturated
and rivers/streams are at elevated levels. An additional inch or
two of rain will continue a threat for flooding, especially for
low lying and areas typically prone to flooding. Snow levels will
begin to fall back down from their current height of roughly 9000
ft ASL along with a lowering in rainfall intensity from west to
east. The threat for flooding is expected to wane beyond 15Z as
rainfall intensity lowers and slow levels fall.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6YA1lfY4Ypxzzf-zAAi-DgR5kQAeVzvpvJS6byBCD8ekhJ5qLqSe3ySHXTjYgCTsGrQ3=
QFW6weeK1gYxIRIY7jfNjYA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34811109 34691062 34560981 34330969 34160969=20
            33980979 33720968 33520966 33291005 33131039=20
            33131098 33421139 33811173 34021204 34351201=20
            34601175 34671139=20

=3D =3D =3D
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