Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 22 2023 08:53:18 ACUS48 KWNS 220853 SWOD48 SPC AC 220851 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ....DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that broadly cyclonic flow aloft will be in place over the CONUS early D4/Saturday. Strong southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to spread eastward across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic as a mid-latitude cyclone deepens and moves through the Upper Great Lakes. At the same time, low-level moisture is expected to spread northward across the Carolinas and into the Mid-Atlantic. Some overlap between this strong upper flow and increasing low-level moisture is possible, supporting the potential for a few stronger thunderstorms. However, predictability regarding the overall storm severity and coverage is low. Farther west, another shortwave trough is expected to move across from the southern High Plains through OK/KS and into the Mid MS Valley on D5/Sunday. An associated surface low will likely move across OK and the Ozark Plateau towards the Lower OH Valley. This overall evolution will foster moisture return and a broad warm-air advection regime across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast States. Environmental conditions support strong to severe thunderstorms, but uncertainty regarding severe coverage precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook. An active pattern will likely persist into early next week, but variability within the guidance results in low forecast confidence and limited predictability. ...Mosier.. 03/22/2023 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .