Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 20 2023 19:42:08

ACUS01 KWNS 201942
SWODY1
SPC AC 201940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

No changes were required to the previous outlook.

...Jewell.. 03/20/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023/

....Synopsis...

A midlevel shortwave impulse will continue to shift east across the
Great Basin toward the central Rockies today/tonight. Midlevel
moisture, and cool temperatures aloft, combined with steep lapse
rates will support 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE. Isolated lightning flashes
will continue through the forecast period, especially across
southeast ID, UT and western CO. Very modest effective shear, and
generally cool and dry low-levels will preclude severe potential.

Late tonight, low-level warm advection is forecast across the
southern Plains vicinity as weak cyclogenesis occurs over eastern CO
in response to the approaching western CONUS shortwave trough.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, but increasing midlevel
moisture, and steepening lapse rates should be sufficient for
developing weak elevated instability through the -12 to -25 C layer.
As such, a few lightning flashes are possible across parts of OK/KS
after 06z tonight.

$$

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