Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 20 2023 08:56:07

ACUS48 KWNS 200856
SWOD48
SPC AC 200854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern early D4/Thursday is forecast to consist of a western
CONUS trough and subtropical ridging centered over the Gulf of
Mexico. Enhanced mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will persist
between these two features, extending from northern Mexico into the
Great Lakes region. The surface pattern is expected to feature a low
over northern IN, with a cold front extending southwestward across
the Mid MS Valley, Ozark Plateau, and OK into southwest TX.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated along this front D4/Thursday
afternoon, supported by ample pre-frontal moisture and a combination
of large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave moving
into the southern High Plains and convergence along the front. Given
the expected vertical shear, supercells are possible in areas where
a discrete mode can be maintained. This appears most probable from
south-central OK into the TX Hill Country.

A shortwave trough will likely continue eastward across the southern
and central Plains on D5/Friday. An associated surface low is
expected to develop along the front over AR before then continuing
northeastward ahead of the shortwave. Thunderstorms will likely
already be ongoing along the front, and the severity of these storms
will be linked to the amount of downstream destabilization.
Reintensification appears most probable across central and southern
MS, where some potential for discrete storms ahead of the front also
exists.

Variability within the guidance limits forecast confidence from
D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. The late-week shortwave trough will
likely continue eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and coastal
Southeast on D6/Saturday, but severe potential is uncertain given
questions about frontal timing and low-level moisture. Moisture
return appears possible across the southern Plains and Lower MS
Valley on D7/Sunday into D8/Monday, ahead of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough. But aforementioned variability limits
predictability.

...Mosier.. 03/20/2023

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.