Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 20 2023 07:22:37

ACUS03 KWNS 200722
SWODY3
SPC AC 200721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail are possible
across northeast Kansas and northern Missouri Wednesday evening.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend across the western CONUS
early Wednesday morning, with more zonal flow across central and
eastern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move
quickly northeastward from southern CA through the Four Corners,
central Rockies and central Plains, accompanied by a jet streak
characterized by 100 kt flow at 500 mb.

Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated downstream of this shortwave
across the central High Plains Wednesday afternoon, with the
resulting low then moving across KS and northern MO along a
sharpening frontal zone. As this occurs, low-level moisture will
advect northward across the southern Plains, with 60s dewpoints
likely reaching southeast KS by Wednesday evening. Warm temperatures
aloft are currently expected to preclude thunderstorm development
across the warm sector over the southern Plains Wednesday afternoon
and evening.

Thunderstorm development is expected during the evening and
overnight across the Mid MO Valley, fostered by warm-air advection
attendant to the strong low-level jet. Steep mid-level lapse rates
and strong mid-level flow will support robust updrafts capable of
hail. The severe threat is greatest with the initial development
during the late evening, but thunderstorms will likely persist
throughout the night eastward/northeastward into more of the Mid MS
Valley.

...Mosier.. 03/20/2023

$$

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