Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 20 2023 05:59:34

ACUS01 KWNS 200559
SWODY1
SPC AC 200558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Discussion...
Relatively low-amplitude, westerly flow aloft will largely prevail
over the U.S. today.  A series of weak/embedded mid-level
perturbations will shift across the Intermountain West and
into/across the Plains through the period.

The westerlies aloft will help to maintain a weak lee surface low
over the central High Plains vicinity.  The resulting low-level
pressure/height gradient will favor a diurnally maximized, southerly
low-level jet.  Associated low-level warm advection/UVV, combined
with modest destabilization resulting from increasing theta-e atop
the surface-based stable layer, will likely be sufficient for
isolated/elevated/late-period thunderstorm development over the
Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity.

Elsewhere, showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across
portions of the Great Basin/Intermountain West, associated with the
aforementioned mid-level perturbations shifting repetitively across
this region through the period.

...Goss/Lyons.. 03/20/2023

$$

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