Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 20 2023 05:02:34

ACUS02 KWNS 200502
SWODY2
SPC AC 200501

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

....Synopsis...
A strong cyclone is forecast to begin the period off the CA coast,
before then continuing eastward through central CA and into the
western Great Basin. Robust mid-level flow will accompany this
cyclone, spreading eastward across southern CA and across the
Southwest/Four Corners regions as the parent cyclone moves east.
Cool mid-level temperatures and increasing mid-level moisture will
combine with persistent forcing for ascent to foster thunderstorm
development throughout the period from central and southern CA
through the southern Great Basin. Highest thunderstorm chances are
anticipated across central CA during the afternoon and evening,
where a low-topped supercell capable of producing marginal hail
and/or damaging gusts is possible. Overall severe coverage is
currently expected to remain too sparse for outlook probabilities.

Lee troughing is expected ahead of this cyclone across the southern
and central High Plains, as a weak surface low moves across KS.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible within the warm-air advection
north/northeast of this low from northeast OK across eastern KS
Tuesday morning. These thunderstorms are expect to continue
northeastward across MO throughout the day as the low-level jet
persists into the afternoon. A few isolated thunderstorms are also
possible across northern MO early Wednesday morning amid a similar
warm-air advection regime. Limited buoyancy should keep severe
potential low.

...Mosier.. 03/20/2023

$$

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