Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 19 2023 09:07:02

ACUS48 KWNS 190906
SWOD48
SPC AC 190905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Airmass modification and a northward flux of low-level moisture will
occur across the southern Plains through mid-week, as upper trough
amplification occurs over the Southwest. On Day 4/Wednesday, while a
15+ percent severe area is not currently warranted, some severe
potential may exist near a surface low across Kansas and a front
extending east-northeastward into Missouri/Illinois.

For Day 5/Thursday, severe weather seems probable across portions of
the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Current
thinking is that severe potential should be maximized near the
advancing cold front across Oklahoma toward the Ozarks and near the
southward-extending dryline into north/west-central Texas. All
severe hazards are plausible.

Severe-weather potential will likely persist eastward toward the
ArkLaMiss/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee into Day/6 Friday.
This scenario will be supported by strong deep-layer/low-level
winds, atop a relatively moist boundary layer ahead of a cold front
and/or lingering convection from Day 5/Thursday night.

Thereafter, guidance variability considerably increases into the
weekend, with uncertainties regarding the details of subsequent
severe potential.

...Guyer.. 03/19/2023

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