Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 18 2023 12:46:57

ACUS01 KWNS 181246
SWODY1
SPC AC 181245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
A synoptic-scale, mid/upper-level cyclone was centered over the
eastern MI Upper Peninsula, with trough extending northeastward
across western/northern QC and westward across SD.  The cyclone is
forecast to move east-northeastward to south-central QC through the
period, with the trailing trough maintaining strongly positive tilt.
By 12Z tomorrow, the trough should extend across the Lower Great
Lakes, lower Ohio Valley, and Ozarks.  A broad belt of confluent,
strengthening, gently cyclonically curved flow aloft will exist
south of the trough, from the southern Plains across most of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.

The associated surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z across northern
FL from eastern Apalachee Bay to north of JAX, then near SSI in
extreme southeastern GA -- will move southward through the FL
Peninsula to the Keys by the end of the period, and along the way,
should be crossing central FL around 00Z.  Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible as the front impinges on a
diurnally destabilizing air mass.  Inland mixing/drying of the
boundary layer may reduce buoyancy, especially considering weak
mid/upper lapse rates and the likely presence of stable layer(s)
aloft (such as sampled to varying extents this morning by RAOBs at
TBW, JAX and MFL).  The westerly surface-flow component also will
limit convergence.  Still, enough frontal lift and pockets of
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, amid weak CINH, should support a band of
showers and at least a few thunderstorms today.  Other, more
isolated thunderstorms may develop around the peninsular coastlines
and Keys ahead of the front, or over nearby waters then potentially
reaching land.

...Edwards/Broyles.. 03/18/2023

$$

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