Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 18 2023 09:12:24

ACUS48 KWNS 180912
SWOD48
SPC AC 180910

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0410 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Airmass modification and a northward flux of low-level moisture will
occur across the southern Plains/ArkLaTex through the early into
middle part of next week, as upper trough amplification occurs over
the Southwest. Severe-weather potential should remain low in the Day
4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday time frame.

For Day 6/Thursday, a regional severe-risk area has been introduced
across the southern Plains for severe potential that should increase
through the afternoon into Thursday night. Guidance has trended
toward a better consensus with the eastward transition of a
low-latitude upper trough over Southwest Deserts and northern
Mexico. As low-level moistening occurs across the southern Plains,
current thinking is that severe potential should be maximized near
the advancing cold front across Oklahoma and near the
southward-extending dryline into north/west-central Texas. All
severe hazards are plausible.

Severe-weather potential will likely persist, and potentially
increase, into Day 7/Friday across the ArkLaTex and Lower
Mississippi Valley. While guidance variability precludes a specific
areal delineation at this time, severe storms appear probable across
these general regions and risk areas will likely subsequently be
warranted.

...Guyer.. 03/18/2023

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