Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0305
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 17 2023 23:46:22

ACUS11 KWNS 172346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172345=20
FLZ000-180115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 172345Z - 180115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado remain
possible this evening. Watch issuance is considered unlikely at this
time.

DISCUSSION...At 2330Z, extensive convection is ongoing from
southwest GA into the northern Gulf of Mexico, in association with a
cold front. The front/outflow is tending to undercut convection
across the northern FL Panhandle, where the line is oriented
southwest-to-northeast. However, the storm cluster over the northern
Gulf of Mexico has more of a north-south orientation, which should
prevent frontal undercutting in the near term. Downstream of this
convection from Panama City to near Apalachicola, modest diurnal
heating of a moist environment has resulted in MLCAPE increasing
into the 500-1000 J/kg. Weak midlevel lapse rates will continue to
limit updraft intensity, but with favorable low-level and deep-layer
shear in place (as noted in the KEVX VWP), some threat for locally
damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado may materialize as this
convection moves onshore. If any small discrete cells forming ahead
of the line can mature into supercells, they may pose a brief
tornado threat as well, though this scenario is also rather
uncertain.=20

At this time, the threat is expected to remain relatively limited in
magnitude and areal coverage, rendering watch issuance unlikely.

...Dean/Goss.. 03/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9BNzFTiux_KubW9YLZFfb8paf4TflDDF6Yo67OGkEPllVfRhIeqUJbukKXAC250YpLuDDZyS9=
D_7tALJveEqZ3y-G8Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30398633 30608602 30808531 30578456 30508423 30228405
            30018408 29808426 29738468 29528526 29758576 30008584
            30128623 30398633=20


=3D =3D =3D
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