Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 17 2023 19:05:19

ACUS01 KWNS 171905
SWODY1
SPC AC 171903

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across
parts of the north-central/northeastern Gulf Coast region.  Damaging
gusts will be the main concern, and a tornado is possible.

Little change was done to the existing outlook except to clear
probabilities from behind the front. The air mass continues to
slowly destabilize over the FL Panhandle, and a few severe storms
will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. Hodographs
will remain marginally favorable for supercells with either a brief
tornado or locally damaging gusts with the stronger cells.

...Jewell.. 03/17/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023/

....Gulf Coast Region...
A strong surface cold front and associated line of showers and
thunderstorms is progressing eastward across southeast LA and
southern MS.  Convective intensity has been modest this morning,
with relatively weak CAPE and cool surface temperatures being
limiting factors.  Visible satellite imagery shows partial heating
occurring from Mobile Bay eastward, where temperatures will warm
into the mid/upper 70s.  Destabilization and steepening low-level
lapse rates should result in some intensification and increasing
risk of robust storms by mid-afternoon over southern AL, the FL
panhandle, and southwest GA.  Forecast soundings show relatively
veered low-level winds and moderately strong westerly flow aloft.
This may result in a few bowing structures capable of locally
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

$$

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