Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0304
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 17 2023 18:27:51

ACUS11 KWNS 171827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171827=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-172100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Areas affected...southern Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 171827Z - 172100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may continue to gradually
intensify and organize through 5-7 PM CDT, eventually accompanied by
wind gusts perhaps occasionally approaching severe limits.  It is
not yet clear that this will require a severe weather watch, but
trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been slowly intensifying within a narrow
corridor along and just ahead of the sharp southeastward advancing
cold front, and generally south of an intersecting pre-frontal
outflow boundary extending east-northeastward across southern
Alabama.  This is occurring in advance of a remnant mesoscale
convective vortex, and perhaps associated weak subtropical
perturbation, emerging from the Mexican Plateau to the south of the
Texas Big Bend last night.

Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates are generally poor, and
supportive of limited initial instability, insolation and low-level
moistening on southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico is beginning to
contribute to at least weak boundary-layer destabilization in
advance of the developing thunderstorms.  As inflow of this air
contributes to further deepening of convection, in the presence of
strong deep-layer shear, and west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow
around 40 kt, activity may continue to slowly organize and
accelerate eastward through late afternoon.  Both the Rapid Refresh
and high-resolution Rapid Refresh have been suggestive that
corridors of strong rear inflow in excess of 50 kt may develop with
the evolving convective system, at least in the
lower/mid-troposphere.  If this occurs, it is possible that it could
be accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface gusts, at
least occasionally approaching severe limits.

...Kerr/Hart.. 03/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-PK65SlpUQMTeLhWlbD1LTS55S5bC0FPkwYJ1g5xrd5hLaPwR5pCUnX0r_W2LQ-Ei6ZzKG0WI=
njwqe-34OlBf5dG-Ag$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30478815 31078784 32088548 31228567 30478592 29648674
            29328878 29448929 30478815=20


=3D =3D =3D
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