Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0303
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 17 2023 06:53:16

ACUS11 KWNS 170653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170652=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-170745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Areas affected...East Texas...Central Louisiana...Southwestern
Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 70...

Valid 170652Z - 170745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 70 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue for a couple more
hours across the lower Mississippi Valley, but should become more
isolated with time. New weather watch issuance, to the east of WW
70, appears unlikely due to the weakly unstable airmass further
east.

DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms is currently ongoing ahead
of a cold front from southeast Texas northeastward into
north-central and northeastern Louisiana. The line is located along
a narrow corridor of instability extending from near the
Houston/Galveston area northeastward into north-central Louisiana,
where the RAP is showing MLCAPE generally ranging from 500 to 1500
J/kg. The line of storms is not only being supported by the
low-level convergence ahead of the front, but also by a shortwave
trough in the Sabine River Valley, evident on water-vapor imagery.
The latest WSR-88D VWP at Fort Polk, Louisiana has 0-6 km shear near
50 knots with some veering of the winds with height in the lowest 2
km. This wind profile will support a severe threat with wind damage
and hail possible over the next couple of hours. As the line of
storms moves eastward, it will encounter weaker and weaker
instability. This, combined with a strong capping inversion to the
east, should result in a downtrend of the severe threat over the
next few hours.

...Broyles.. 03/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_zVj_1lGZoesnuQcKAo-yJ6oYCTm3l3UAGrKtz__YRS16UMvqJhB29vmABUixyBV0Ny7lj4ap=
D9Nx-nm4xZcPZUFwDE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30009372 30139272 30469191 30849145 31279137 31629143
            31869184 31559297 31129376 30859432 30429434 30099397
            30009372=20


=3D =3D =3D
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