Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0302
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 17 2023 06:27:16

ACUS11 KWNS 170627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170626 COR
TXZ000-170900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Areas affected...South-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 170626Z - 170900Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated large hail threat is expected
to continue across parts of south-central Texas over the next few
hours. Although weather watch issuance is unlikely, the need for a
watch still remains possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a severe short line
segment about 80 statute miles to the south-southeast of Del Rio.
This line appears to be associated with a subtle shortwave trough
moving eastward across the Rio Grande Valley, evident on water vapor
imagery. The line is located along the western edge of moderate
instability and will move into increasing instability over the next
few hours. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Del Rio has effective shear
near 55 knots and some speed shear in the mid-levels. While
effective shear will be adequate for a severe threat, a weak
inversion does exist near the surface according to RAP forecast
soundings. For this reason and frontal-undercutting, the storms
could remain elevated. The severe threat is expected to continue to
be isolated. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats,
as the storms move eastward across south-central Texas over the next
few hours.

...Broyles/Edwards.. 03/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-n5zCkt7jyHG8YQaMnHiZF5KcfGEpYFN0EdjzF90vzExCdc-sWLsGAoEMuNLIW8gJvvluS0iX=
UKepXY0weJXxj12s9k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28530011 28780014 28950006 29049973 28919830 28819791
            28519761 27999774 27769813 27799871 27909942 28139989
            28530011=20


=3D =3D =3D
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