Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0301
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 17 2023 04:43:14

ACUS11 KWNS 170443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170442=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-170615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...East TX into central/northern LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...70...

Valid 170442Z - 170615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69, 70 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado
will continue overnight. Some threat may spread east of WW 70, but
the need for additional watch issuance is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...An extensive QLCS is ongoing at 0430Z along a cold
front from east TX into northwest LA. A notable inflection along the
line is noted moving into De Soto Parish, LA, where a supercell was
earlier absorbed into the frontal QLCS. Strong low-level flow/shear
noted on the KPOE VWP will continue to support locally damaging
gusts and possibly a brief tornado along this part of the line, and
any other embedded bowing segments that can be sustained without
being undercut by the front.=20

Farther east, persistent elevated convection has organized into a
small cluster across north-central LA. With very limited MLCAPE this
far east, the severe potential with this cluster may be somewhat
limited, but isolated strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as
it moves eastward.=20

With time, the leading cluster and eventually the frontal QLCS will
approach the eastern edge of WW 70. With buoyancy expected to remain
very limited into northeast LA, the need for downstream watch
issuance is uncertain at this time, and will depend on short-term
observational trends regarding the organization and intensity of the
ongoing storms, and any further destabilization that can occur in
the next 1-2 hours.

...Dean/Bunting.. 03/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_zJtvsi-SLP8D8PE2nE3Od_SL1J3geYre13Se1ioNrmDfWbSpY-j8s-clg8VlwphnLl4GSGNb=
fNBQDH5CG1v9Ce13SU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   31119549 32209390 32719307 32889198 32899163 32689122
            31669157 31109260 30799383 30819537 31119549=20


=3D =3D =3D
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