Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0300
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 17 2023 03:44:43

ACUS11 KWNS 170344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170344=20
TXZ000-170515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central/east TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...

Valid 170344Z - 170515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69 continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and locally damaging gusts may spread
southeastward late tonight. The need for additional watch issuance
is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of convection have been ongoing
across parts of central TX late this evening, with MRMS hail size
estimates occasionally approaching severe criteria. While MLCINH
will continue to increase with time, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and
effective shear of around 40-50 kt will continue to support
organized storm potential.=20

The risk for damaging gusts and hail may briefly increase as a
strong cold front overtakes the ongoing storm clusters, and any
clusters than accelerate southeastward and avoid being undercut by
the front may continue to pose some severe threat into the overnight
hours. At this time, it is unclear whether the coverage and
magnitude of the remaining severe threat will necessitate downstream
watch issuance, but trends will continue to be monitored for any
uptick in storm intensity and organization.

...Dean/Bunting.. 03/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5T5KTV3oBUhGQfONpPMAUhXdqHU7-qOGPA33fsjBjncnqw8LXVIhFbhlzbN1169QwgUrDtBhA=
Aw44YsltUhs2btguas$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON   29839804 30699649 30739555 29959572 29509643 29399683
            29289764 29299789 29839804=20


=3D =3D =3D
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