Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0299
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 17 2023 03:07:12

ACUS11 KWNS 170307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170306=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-170430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...Parts of east TX into western LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...

Valid 170306Z - 170430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging winds and a tornado or two
continues. A small downstream watch may be required.

DISCUSSION...At 03Z, a QLCS continues to evolve along a strong cold
front, with an embedded long-lived supercell over Rusk County, TX.
Some modest destabilization has occurred downstream with MLCAPE
around 500 J/kg, and the KSHV VWP continues to show 0-1 km SRH of
greater than 250 m2/s2 and deep-layer shear greater than 50 kt. This
will favor a continuation of the severe threat downstream, with the
greatest near-term threat expected along the QLCS segment with the
embedded supercell. As that portion of the line moves southeastward,
a threat for damaging wind and a tornado or two will continue, and
potentially move out of WW 69. This may necessitate new downstream
watch issuance within the hour.

...Dean/Bunting.. 03/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_E4O7QrUB2-SDEXzJQ3Tx47tvVj1ZUj-hZigy2WIq2LoXIBEHAQrOtoZqJ5rEhU1GoqbV49au=
DGaL-VwMIHoYzQ-2EQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31929536 32729405 32179292 31699264 31209262 30879292
            30909361 31369452 31669501 31929536=20


=3D =3D =3D
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