Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 17 2023 00:48:43

ACUS01 KWNS 170048
SWODY1
SPC AC 170046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
PORTION OF EASTERN TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue overnight
across parts of southern and eastern Texas, and into parts of
southern Arkansas and Louisiana.  Hail, along with locally gusty
winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes, with accompany the
strongest storms overnight.

....Discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing near and ahead of a
pronounced/strong cold front advancing steadily southeastward across
Missouri/Arkansas/eastern and southern Texas this evening.  This
front will continue its southeastward advance overnight, reaching
the Middle Ohio/Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and far western
Gulf of Mexico by 17/12Z -- in tandem with the advance of a
low-amplitude, mid-level short-wave trough.

As the front advances, it will continue to focus convection, with
gradual/steady upscale growth toward a semi-continuous line of
storms expected.  While instability diminishes with eastward extent
toward the lower Mississippi Valley, locally damaging wind gusts
with stronger storms embedded within the broader line are expected.
Additionally, a tornado or two could occur -- particularly with any
isolated/rotating storm just ahead of the advancing convective line.

Farther to the west, the strongest storms which affected the greater
Dallas/Fort Worth vicinity earlier, remain capable of producing
large hail and a tornado or two from east of the Metroplex into the
Piney Woods area.  With time, as the storms grow upscale, locally
damaging winds and a QLCS-type tornado will remain possible.

Finally farther south, the continued advance of the front through an
unstable -- but capped -- airmass should eventually yield
anafrontal-type convective development atop colder, post-frontal
low-level air.  Given the degree of instability, and favorable
shear, large hail will be possible with this convection overnight.

...Goss.. 03/17/2023

$$

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