Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0297
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 17 2023 00:38:44

ACUS11 KWNS 170038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170038=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-170215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern TX and western LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 170038Z - 170215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of supercells have recently evolved across
eastern TX and western LA. A risk for hail, damaging winds and
perhaps a brief tornado may persist for 1-2 more hours before storms
gradually weaken.

DISCUSSION...As of 0035 UTC, regional radar analysis showed two
supercells over Sabine County/Parish in eastern TX and far western
LA have recently intensified. Located along the far eastern edge of
the warm sector, these storms are rapidly approaching a much more
stable airmass farther east into central LA. Despite increasingly
unfavorable thermodynamics, residual buoyancy, (~500 J/kg of MUCAPE)
and 40+ kt of effective shear may support an isolated risk for hail
and damaging wind gusts for the next 1-2 hours. A brief tornado may
also be possible given 0-1km SRH near 250-300 m2/s2 and the
supercell mode. These storms should gradually weaken as they move
into the more stable and less unstable air farther east. With
uncertainty on storm longevity high, a new WW is unlikely. Though
conditions will be monitored for any changes.

...Lyons/Bunting.. 03/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7Fs9i9rjH5TN59t824aH48QM9uvf4WwE7Tx8GeEitcnynHWBtqCNP8S8ubezSaMei3cuoS9Bo=
NIreitrE_ECh5fmujA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31609410 31829379 31939341 31989283 31969256 31859241
            31569247 31419265 31329297 31209336 31199376 31189420
            31329429 31609410=20


=3D =3D =3D
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