Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0296 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 16 2023 22:39:40 ACUS11 KWNS 162239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162238=20 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-170015- Mesoscale Discussion 0296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0538 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Areas affected...Central/north TX...Southeast OK...Southwest AR...Northwest LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 68... Valid 162238Z - 170015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for all severe hazards continues across WW 68. Downstream watch issuance into parts of southwest Arkansas, northeast Texas, and northwest Louisiana is likely by 00Z. DISCUSSION...An intense supercell cluster is ongoing at 2230Z across the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex vicinity, with other severe storms noted along a cold front into southeast OK, and southward along a dryline into central TX. Across central into north TX, MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell structures capable of very large hail, with 2-inch hail recently being noted with an LP supercell in Johnson County, TX, and 3-inch hail with the supercell cluster in Tarrant County. Locally severe gusts will also be possible, especially with the potentially upscale-growing cluster near the Metroplex, and also with any stronger cells into central TX where low-level lapse rates are steeper. A possible tornado was reported earlier near Fort Worth, and the environment remains generally favorable for tornadic supercells, especially if any discrete supercells can be maintained into northeast TX, where stronger low-level shear/SRH is in place.=20=20 Farther north into southeast OK, storms are moving into a less unstable environment, with MLCAPE of 500 J/kg or less noted in recent mesoanalyses. This will tend to limit the hail threat with time, though an increasingly linear mode may continue to support a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado, given rather strong low-level and deep-layer noted in recent mesoanalyses and the KSHV VWP. Downstream, modest destabilization will be possible in advance of the ongoing storms into northwest LA and southwest AR. With the threat for locally damaging gusts and possibly a couple of tornadoes expected to move out of WW 68, downstream watch issuance is likely by 00Z. ...Dean/Bunting.. 03/16/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Qdm8mC6JAqeHKYlbZr_hTGJa3kj1S53NCZuUzFfIq_SDd9fjJ4p3DlrgJ637EzDJR1aZfjKY= 2yGC4GlFRv1GmMhcTQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31109860 33489735 35009591 35069499 34949432 33839359 32719346 31659385 30839532 30579649 30899780 31109860=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .