Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0295
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 16 2023 21:26:11

ACUS11 KWNS 162126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162125=20
TXZ000-162230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

Valid 162125Z - 162230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms developing long the dryline may pose a severe risk
in the next couple of hours. Tornado Watch 68 will be extended
southward.

DISCUSSION...Over the last 30 minutes, several stronger updrafts
have emerged along and ahead of the dryline west of Interstate 35 in
central TX. Ahead of the developing convection, temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s F with dewpoints in the mid 60s were supporting
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear remains highly favorable
for supercells with the FWD 20z special sounding/VAD showing 50-55
kt of effective shear. As storms mature, they may pose a risk for
large to very large hail given favorable buoyancy and deep-layer
shear. A tornado risk may also evolve if storms are able to remain
discrete farther east where low-level shear is stronger. Given the
current position and projected trajectories of the new storms,
Tornado Watch 68 will be extended southward.

...Lyons/Bunting.. 03/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_JEBfRbj3TBvLpkZOc-z7WIIkGejIXozpsHhmoeHMqtTvNuOtHBrk5wHcGJHKv1dcpCKEbgU3=
is5c2w2nmPkszerfwU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31829837 32069800 32099701 32099657 32009638 31699652
            31059712 30959737 30919790 31049847 31139862 31589862
            31829837=20


=3D =3D =3D
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