Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0294
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 16 2023 20:43:41

ACUS11 KWNS 162043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162043=20
TXZ000-162215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex and vicinity

Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

Valid 162043Z - 162215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

SUMMARY...An ongoing supercell in Parker County will pose a locally
greater threat for very large hail and tornadoes in the Dallas/Forth
Worth metroplex and vicinity in the next 30-60 minutes.

DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has developed in the open warm
sector ahead of a cold front surging through the Red River Valley. A
slight right turn roughly 30 mins ago has yielded increasingly
deviant motion around 275 degrees at around 37 kts. This is around
15-20 degrees farther right and 5-10 kts faster than the expected
Bunkers-right storm motion from the current KFWS VAD. This observed
motion yields roughly 350 J/kg of 0-1-km SRH from the KFWS VAD (>
250 J/kg of which is concentrated in the lowest 500 m AGL). The
recent 20z FWD radiosonde revealed some MLCIN (around 40 J/kg) with
around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Radar and visual observations suggest a
predominantly HP storm mode which, along with the small amount of
MLCIN, may be responsible for tempering the tornado threat thus far.
However, given environmental and radar trends, the threats for a
significant, impactful hailstorm and some tornadoes are increasing
for the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex within the hour.

...Flournoy/Squitieri.. 03/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_fNWb-nfnCBmYK4Awvk2IvlQT7hcTj9lHpgbLRI3kQHlvWXTtbTfhnqwHIvBQJOYjpzG1-TTw=
KZzTnLXKr1Ql0yVbH0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   32619762 32689786 32919793 33069769 33129718 33089656
            32989600 32759591 32639607 32579644 32579700 32619762=20


=3D =3D =3D
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