Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0293
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 16 2023 20:04:11

ACUS11 KWNS 162004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162003=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-162200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0293
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Areas affected...south-central OK and north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 68...

Valid 162003Z - 162200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 68
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
wind gusts continues across Tornado Watch 68.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong/severe thunderstorms is ongoing along
the cold front, which continues to sag southeastward through central
OK. An embedded supercell -- currently located in Stephens County at
20z -- has persisted for the last couple of hours and produced golf
ball-sized hail. The storm's deviant motion should keep it from
getting undercut by the cold front, at least in the short term,
which poses a continued threat for large hail and perhaps a tornado
or two along the I-35 corridor.

Across the Red River, convection initiation is ongoing in portions
of north TX. A storm in Palo Pinto County has gradually acquired a
mid-level mesocyclone, and other convection initiation attempts are
evident in its vicinity. It seems likely that one or two supercells
will continue moving eastward through Tornado Watch 68 during the
next couple of hours. As they do, they will encounter an environment
increasingly supportive of all severe hazards. Brief clearing ahead
of the storm should boost surface temperatures into the upper
60s/lower 70s, yielding MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. The KFWS VWP has
consistently shown large low-level shear and 0-1-km SRH around
200-250 J/kg. These factors suggest that the greatest near-term
threat for severe hazards, particularly large hail and a few
tornadoes, is materializing along the southern portions of Tornado
Watch 68.

...Flournoy/Squitieri.. 03/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4KCQm__iga8yU5VoYIUp9_FWWciTzWdw3dir_DY1vVf40cAHHw_ebIxk_u9tR9687vqb5Vxna=
q0Lc6DJF295IpWjFmw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32279829 32669867 33149890 33519890 34059858 34779735
            34909624 34219566 33359555 32669618 32319731 32279829=20


=3D =3D =3D
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